My predictions for people who will run:
1. James F will run again and lose. The current stigma around sitting arbiters, and especially him for refusing to loosen his iron grip on IRC matters is going to be his downfall, combined with his inactivity in general. If inactivity killed Raul, who is infinitely more popular, active in general and powerful than James, James has zero chance of re-election.
2. Mbisanz. The easy choice, and would likely be a very active arbiter. Flip a coin if he wins. If he doesn't win this year, he will next year or the year after. Keep running, Matt. I have a feeling when it comes down he'd be one of the better arbs, in that he doesn't seem to tolerate bullshit now. Whether that is good or bad will depend on which side of a fight you're on. Seems to be willing to take on politically powerful stuff, so he could be a dark horse white knight.
Matt has corrected me--and I did see his post above! Like I told Swat on Meta a while back, did I mention I'm psychic? No? Maybe? OK, maybe I'm a crap psychic...
3. Jehochman. I think he will win, but it will be close, and he won't be one of the clear run-away winners. Another possible white knight, who seems to be uninterested in the real political power games.
4. Ryan Postlewaite would have a decent to lower chance of winning if he ran (which is way better than most people). He says here he won't run. But we'll see!
5. Moreschi--wouldn't win if he ran, but I can see him tossing his hat in. People would be all "redirect to [[Clown]]" over civility stuff, but he'd be an ass-kicking arbiter. Whether that is good or bad will depend on which side of a fight you're on.
6. WJBscribe. And I think he'll win. Not much to be said. He'll win.
7. Thebainer. Gut feeling he'll run again. Of the current arbs, he's probably the ONLY one with a full shot to win, since he keeps his head down and just works and doesn't visibly (that I've ever noticed) take part in stupid politics.
8. Charles Matthews. I don't know if he's sick of it yet, but I suspect as well Charles will run again, but I think too many people perceive him as a cabalist in the shadow of Mantanmoreland-Gerard-Weiss et al. It will kill his chances.
9. Swatjester. Might be a close win, but I think he'd get it. Too popular, too visible, in too many places, and many people view Swat as a good guy (I do, too, which I'm sure someone will flame him over). I don't think that stupid fight earlier from this earlier on RFAR will matter at all. Especially since the other guy--I can't even remember his name, demonstrating the lack of relevance--is blocked for legal threats.
10. AGK/Anthony: A long standing Clerk, I think he would be a near shoo-in.
11. Thatcher. I think Thatcher would win, if not as insanely overwhelmingly as Brad did, but close to that.
12. Bishonen. She would make a fiery, glorious, Wrath of God Bishzilla arb, who would clean up a lot of bullshit. Sadly, I think the residual fallout from the fall of Sidaway and his endless harassment of her will end up leading to her not winning. Too many people want to get back at Giano, her, and George for having the stones to stand up to the useless middle managers that think they run Wikipedia.
13. Kurt. I mean, c'mon. Kurt is like Nader. He's always in the running!
Incoming Arb class quick guesses today:
1. Thatcher 2. WJBscribe 3. Jehochman 4. Swatjester 5. Anthony
6. Mbisanz
This post has been edited by Rootology:
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