Nominations closed Options

[Alex]

OK, I thought I'd create a new thread, to discuss all the nominations in one convenient place, now that the final lot are in.

The list is as follows:

AnthonyQBachler
BillMasen
Carcharoth
Casliber
Charles Matthews
Cool Hand Luke
Coren
Dream Focus
Fish and karate
George The Dragon
Gwen Gale
Hemlock Martinis
Hersfold
Jayvdb
Jdforrester
Jehochman
Justice America
Kmweber
Lankiveil
Lifebaka
Privatemusings
Risker
Rlevse
RMHED
Roger Davies
Sam Korn
Secret
Shell Kinney
SirFozzie
The Fat Man Who Never Came Back
Trojanpony
Vassyana
White Cat
WilyD
Wizardman
WJBscribe

I've already chosen who I will be voting for.

[Shalom]

It might be useful to list the folks who realistically have no shot.

"Never heard of him:"

AnthonyQBachler
BillMasen
Dream Focus (note the meager Wikipedia-space contribs: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?limit=...&year=&month=-1 )
Justice America
Trojanpony

Joke nominations:
George the Dragon
Kmweber
The Fat Man Who Never Came Back

Too much history:
Privatemusings (Arbcom case)
RMHED (failed RFAs)
White Cat (Arbcom case)
Secret (long inactivity this year; unlikely to remain active for a full ArbCom term)

Failed in last year's elections:
Hemlock Martinis (54 support, 78 oppose: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arb...emlock_Martinis )
Shell Kinney (91 support, 73 oppose http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arb...te/Shell_Kinney )

Currently on the committee:
Charles Matthews
Jdforrester

That leaves 20 remaining candidates who have at least an outside shot of winning. I think Hemlock and Shell will do better than some of these, but they won't finish in the top seven. All 20 of the names below are administrators, as best I can recall. It should be noted that no non-admin has won election to the Committee, and it is not likely to happen in the future unless the non-admin is especially respected for other reasons and chooses not to run for RFA. With 7 spots for 20 bona fide candidates, I'll give each of these about a 1 in 3 chance of making it. I may make a more specific prediction later.

Carcharoth
Casliber
Cool Hand Luke
Coren
Fish and karate
Gwen Gale
Hersfold
Jayvdb
Jehochman
Lankiveil
Lifebaka
Risker
Rlevse
Roger Davies
Sam Korn
SirFozzie
Vassyana
WilyD
Wizardman
WJBscribe

[Shalom]

I'll provisionally knock out the kids (users who are definitely or probably less than 24 years old) and some of the newer admins who might not rate high enough on the experience metric. That takes care of Gwen Gale, Hersfold, Lifebaka, WilyD and Wizardman (who also failed last year for inexperience, and I should have listed him earlier). Regarding Wizardman, see his failed RFB which got about 3/4 (75%) support: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Req...tship/Wizardman

That leaves the following fifteen names. I project that the seven top names, and at least nine of the top ten, will be on this list.

Carcharoth
Casliber
Cool Hand Luke
Coren
Fish and karate
Jayvdb
Jehochman
Lankiveil
Risker
Rlevse
Roger Davies
Sam Korn
SirFozzie
Vassyana
WJBscribe

Jayvdb is a former ArbCom clerk, and has oversight; Coren and Rlevse are current ones. Rlevse is also a bureaucrat and checkuser. Sam Korn is a former arb, with all the privs that go with it; WJBscribe is MedCom "chair", and a bureaucrat.

Yes, I'm aware of that. I'm almost certain WJBscribe and Rlevse will make it, but I don't want to play the game of assigning two seats to them and guessing who will get the other five. I'm just trying to see who's got a chance.

This post has been edited by Shalom:

[privatemusings]

Here are the absolutely definite, 100% guaranteed, head down to your bookie and make a ton of cash, results for this year's election;

WJBscribe
Rlevse
Sam Korn
Carcharoth
Vassyana
Casliber
and 50 / 50 between Risker and Jayvdb for 7th or 8th....

The results are helpfully in the finishing order too - if anyone will pay more than 12 to 1 on this being accurate, I'll paypal them $10 by return :-)

watch the ex-arb.s closely though (I guess I mean Charles Matthews and Jdforrester), because if they scrape 50% (and I think Charles has a good shot) expect to see them on the committee at some point :-)

That's the skinny from me :-)