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William Connolley (and Polargeo) vs Lar, Global warming wars |
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Cla68 |
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QUOTE(Herschelkrustofsky @ Fri 23rd July 2010, 2:16am) And the quest for drama continues. That is referring to this I believe and this discussion. I've heard that at least a couple of the IDCab regulars changed user names. I do see some familiar names in action here. The global warming topic is related somewhat to the Intelligent Design episode, in that some of the involved editors apparently believe they're fighting to save civilization from anti-science religious fanatics. By the way, Hipocrite used to be this editor, who does appear to believe in that cause. If I remember right, he wrote an anti-Wikipedia Review essay at one point, naming editors (including me) who were members here. I don't know what happened to it. This post has been edited by Cla68:
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thegoodlocust |
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QUOTE(Cla68 @ Thu 22nd July 2010, 9:14pm)
The global warming topic is related somewhat to the Intelligent Design episode, in that some of the involved editors apparently believe they're fighting to save civilization from anti-science religious fanatics.
I suppose they must've missed my thoughts on the subject then - oh well.
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anthony |
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QUOTE(thegoodlocust @ Fri 23rd July 2010, 5:04am) QUOTE(Cla68 @ Thu 22nd July 2010, 9:14pm)
The global warming topic is related somewhat to the Intelligent Design episode, in that some of the involved editors apparently believe they're fighting to save civilization from anti-science religious fanatics.
I suppose they must've missed my thoughts on the subject then - oh well. QUOTE Unfortunately, correlation has never and can never prove causation – the only way to establish causation with regards to global warming would be to take a few identical planets, alter their CO² levels and then measure the effects. This is clearly beyond our current means and since such a scientific experiment is not possible, the AGW hypothesis cannot be disproved which makes it completely at odds with the scientific method.
So, by that argument, is evolution also "completely at odds with the scientific method"?
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Herschelkrustofsky |
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QUOTE(anthony @ Fri 23rd July 2010, 11:52am) QUOTE Unfortunately, correlation has never and can never prove causation – the only way to establish causation with regards to global warming would be to take a few identical planets, alter their CO² levels and then measure the effects. This is clearly beyond our current means and since such a scientific experiment is not possible, the AGW hypothesis cannot be disproved which makes it completely at odds with the scientific method.
So, by that argument, is evolution also "completely at odds with the scientific method"? You lost me there. What the Good Locust is saying here is correct. Correlation is frequently used as a substitute for causation, including by astrologers, incompetent economic forecasters, and the AGW people (although to be fair, the AGW people first manicure the data to remove anything that might correlate incorrectly.) None of this has anything to do with evolution, properly understood, although you might be thinking of the Darwinian approach, which is mainly just an apology for social engineering.
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anthony |
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QUOTE(Herschelkrustofsky @ Sat 24th July 2010, 3:59am) QUOTE(anthony @ Fri 23rd July 2010, 11:52am) QUOTE Unfortunately, correlation has never and can never prove causation – the only way to establish causation with regards to global warming would be to take a few identical planets, alter their CO² levels and then measure the effects. This is clearly beyond our current means and since such a scientific experiment is not possible, the AGW hypothesis cannot be disproved which makes it completely at odds with the scientific method.
So, by that argument, is evolution also "completely at odds with the scientific method"? You lost me there. What the Good Locust is saying here is correct. So, you agree that the *only* way to establish causation with regards to global warming "would be to take a few identical planets, alter their CO² levels and then measure the effects"? If so, (IMG: smilys0b23ax56/default/shrug.gif), I've got nothing more to say to you about it. (*) I'd still appreciate the Good Locust's answer though, because from what I've read from him so far this seems to be an uncharacteristic error. (*) I take that back. I'll pose this question to anyone who wants to defend that statement. How do you show that evolution caused humans to arrive on earth? Build a bunch of planets, throw in a bunch of bacteria, wait a few billion years, and watch humans spring up? Now look, I haven't researched the topic enough to be completely convinced one way or the other (as it's just not a topic which is all that relevant to my life). But from what I have read, anthropogenic global warming is the most plausible theory for what is happening (and whether or not anything is happening). I certainly wouldn't take the position that the Good Locust is taking, that I absolutely won't be convinced no matter *what* evidence is presented to me (that's essentially what he's saying). Furthermore, I don't think it particularly matters whether or not global warming is caused by humans, because all the evidence I've seen is that it would be far too costly to stop it and much more reasonable to deal with it. I'd rather my grandchildren live close to the beach in air conditioning, than in the stone ages. (Which, I hope needless to say, means I don't buy into the "runaway global warming" scare mongering and Environmental Pascal's Wager.) This post has been edited by anthony:
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Cla68 |
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QUOTE(Herschelkrustofsky @ Sat 24th July 2010, 3:01pm) There is an abundance of fallacy of composition in your post. I agree with Mr. Locust specifically that correlation has never and can never prove causation. I'm not proposing any experiments on other planets at this time, because the present administration seems to be scuttling manned space exploration for the immediate future. If one wanted to demonstrate human causation of global warming, one would begin by eliminating solar and other extraterrestrial causes, rather than attempting to forbid discussion of them. I should mention as well that the arrival of humans on earth is an established fact, whereas global warming is agenda-driven conjecture. There are equally plausible theories that we are entering a period of global cooling.
Some areas of global warming science research seem to be more robust than others. The science on the acidification of the oceans, for one, appears to be on much more solid ground than the paleo-climatology which produced the hockey stick graph. Some of the supporters of the AGW idea, however, aggressively defend all AGW research equally, apparently feeling that if some research is discredited, then the entire AGW theory will be discredited. The "pro-AGW" group in Wikipedia appears to fall into this camp. This post has been edited by Cla68:
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thegoodlocust |
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QUOTE(Cla68 @ Sun 25th July 2010, 4:25pm) Some areas of global warming science research seem to be more robust than others. The science on the acidification of the oceans, for one, appears to be on much more solid ground than the paleo-climatology which produced the hockey stick graph. Some of the supporters of the AGW idea, however, aggressively defend all AGW research equally, apparently feeling that if some research is discredited, then the entire AGW theory will be discredited. The "pro-AGW" group in Wikipedia appears to fall into this camp.
I obviously disagree with you about ocean acidfication for a number of reasons (e.g. the pH varies a HUGE amount in various spots of the ocean, the ocean is basic and has only very very very slightly decreased its basicity (so small it is practically measurement error)), but I agree they won't let anything even slightly negative in the articles. I was looking at the Michael Mann talk page and they won't even allow any well-sourced criticism of his investigation in there - they just want to say he was "cleared" of all charges. Hell, even if they get banned then I'm sure they'll just make socks - they've devoted way too much of their lives to this bullshit. QUOTE(Herschelkrustofsky @ Sat 24th July 2010, 4:46am) QUOTE(thegoodlocust @ Fri 23rd July 2010, 10:13pm) What I mean to say is, you say the universe has a purpose, to create more complex/energetic systems, but that seems to be at odds with the Ultimate Fate of the Universe .
Oh. I believe you are referring to entropy. No, thanks. That only holds for small, closed systems. When we are talking about the universe, quite the opposite obtains. And one universe is sufficient for me (more or less by definition.) Oh you think the universe is an open system? I'm not as informed on the subject, but I didn't think that was the case.
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Milton Roe |
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QUOTE(thegoodlocust @ Sun 25th July 2010, 9:55pm) QUOTE(Herschelkrustofsky @ Sat 24th July 2010, 4:46am) QUOTE(thegoodlocust @ Fri 23rd July 2010, 10:13pm) What I mean to say is, you say the universe has a purpose, to create more complex/energetic systems, but that seems to be at odds with the Ultimate Fate of the Universe .
Oh. I believe you are referring to entropy. No, thanks. That only holds for small, closed systems. When we are talking about the universe, quite the opposite obtains. And one universe is sufficient for me (more or less by definition.) Oh you think the universe is an open system? I'm not as informed on the subject, but I didn't think that was the case. Indeed, the entropy of the visible universe is increasing, as it obviously is expanding and gettting colder (on average). About the part of the universe that isn't visible, we have no way of knowing, but if it originated in the Big Bang as our visible part did, the same is happening there, also. Yes, this looks bad for life over the long term, as life requires an energy source and entropy dump (i.e., a source of low entropy energy, like sunlight, and a way of getting rid of that energy with higher entropy, as in radiating it to interstellar space, as infrared). The universe does look sort of "planned" to give regions like planets steady sources of incubating low entropy energy (sunlight) and a place to dump it (into expanding cold space). This happens basically because after the Big Bang, the universe expanded too fast to come into equilibrium, leaving a lot of distributed hydrogen about, which could serve as seeds to incubate life for the next 13+ billion years, and did (by collapsing to stars and giving up the nuclear and gravitational potential that had been stored in those widely-spaced protons, since the Big Bang). The Big Bang seems to have been a random fluctuation from zero energy, so perhaps it's just one of those things that happen from time to time, as the astrophysics joke goes. Perhaps before dark energy rips this universe appart and all life ends, we'll get another one. It's also funny how the physical laws are all set to make long lived stars lasting billions of years, and all that. Will that happen on the next Big Bang? Is each Bang better than the one before for making life, or lots of black holes, or something that feeds back on previous Big Bangs, like Lee Smolin suggests? That would be nice. We won't be around to see the next cycle, but perhaps better versions of us (that take a shorter time than 13.7 billion years to evolve from hydrogen) will.
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Subtle Bee |
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QUOTE(Milton Roe @ Sun 25th July 2010, 11:05pm) Yes, this looks bad for life over the long term, as life requires an energy source and entropy dump (i.e., a source of low entropy energy, like sunlight, and a way of getting rid of that energy with higher entropy, as in radiating it to interstellar space, as infrared).
The universe does look sort of "planned" to give regions like planets steady sources of incubating low entropy energy (sunlight) and a place to dump it (into expanding cold space). This happens basically because after the Big Bang, the universe expanded too fast to come into equilibrium, leaving a lot of distributed hydrogen about, which could serve as seeds to incubate life for the next 13+ billion years, and did (by collapsing to stars and giving up the nuclear and gravitational potential that had been stored in those widely space protons, since the Big Bang).
The Big Bang seems to have been a random fluctuation from zero energy, so perhaps it's just one of those things that happen from time to time, as the astrophysics joke goes. Perhaps before dark energy rips this universe appart and all life ends, we'll get another one.
You know, it's this sort of post that makes it really hard to not like you. And I'm really trying hard. Fuck you.
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Cla68 William Connolley (and Polargeo) vs Lar Malleus
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T... thegoodlocust
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