The WMF Audit, presented before 2008 or not? Options

[thekohser]

Jan. 29. $20. http://www.childsplaycharity.org/ (since Wikipedia is an MMORPG anyway).

Also, it'd be nice if we could make multiple picks. I'd like to make a pick in February too, with a second bet.

KStreet, have you no sense of fairness?

[Samuel Culper Sr.]

3rd of March.

$5.

Although it might be more nteresting on which day of the week they release the information. People are more likely to release a story that reflects badly on them on a Friday afternoon or Saturday (as it will more likely get lost over the weekend). Stories released on Mondays can dominate the discussion for the rest of the week. Not a second guess, but if it turns out okay for Wikia Media Foundation, it will be released as stated above. If it's bad... beware the Ides of March.

[thekohser]

I know this is just a fun game, but am I the only one who thinks these 11th-hour guesses are a bit unfair? They have the advantage of not guessing days already passed.

Still, I'd love to see more charity money thrown into the kitty.

[GlassBeadGame]

Jan. 29. $20. http://www.childsplaycharity.org/ (since Wikipedia is an MMORPG anyway).

Also, it'd be nice if we could make multiple picks. I'd like to make a pick in February too, with a second bet.

That seems like a good idea. It should help maintain interest in the contest.

[Moulton]

Yes, waiting until the last minute (when more information is available) generally yields a more accurate prediction. Then again, as long as there is no limit to the number of times a person can enter, those who entered early guesses (which are clearly losing entries) can still re-enter and stake out a later date. To maintain fairness, it should be allowable for more than one entrant to pick the same date (in which case the winnings are split).

[KStreetSlave]

Jan. 29. $20. http://www.childsplaycharity.org/ (since Wikipedia is an MMORPG anyway).

Also, it'd be nice if we could make multiple picks. I'd like to make a pick in February too, with a second bet.

KStreet, have you no sense of fairness?

What, you've never made super bowl picks? You get one pick for every say, 5 dollars you throw in the pot. It's fair because the more picks you make, the more money you have in the pot, which dilutes your earnings, and also increases the attractiveness of a cheap pick by others in case they win on a long shot, because they'll win big.

Yes, waiting until the last minute (when more information is available) generally yields a more accurate prediction. Then again, as long as there is no limit to the number of times a person can enter, those who entered early guesses (which are clearly losing entries) can still re-enter and stake out a later date. To maintain fairness, it should be allowable for more than one entrant to pick the same date (in which case the winnings are split).

A split winning goes to both charities right?

[Moulton]

Right, but in proportion to the amount wagered.

[gomi]

Although it might be more nteresting on which day of the week they release the information. People are more likely to release a story that reflects badly on them on a Friday afternoon or Saturday ...

Hence my selection of a Friday afternoon, 5pm EST

Yes, waiting until the last minute (when more information is available) generally yields a more accurate prediction.

Except, of course, that no information is forthcoming. In fairness, I would suggest that the lottery be deemed closed prior to any substantive information on the subject from the WMF or its minions.

As regards multiple "tickets", I think that is fine, but you should also allow people to change their vote (provided its date has not passed) before closing.

[Moulton]

Kelly Martin will probably leak it a few days in advance.

[thekohser]

What, you've never made super bowl picks?

Don't trifle with me. I run an intellectually formidable NFL pool every year.

If a Super Bowl pool is announced after Week 17, and people make picks for a winning team for $5 each, it does not stand to reason that the pool becomes a better pool if some lard-ass ponies up $60 and puts a bet on every single playoff team to win the Super Bowl. I can't believe you're even using that as a valid analogy.

I guess I'm the only one who sees these 11th-hour, multiple pickelly-dickelly-doos as being absolutely corrosive to the original intent and spirit of this pool. If you want to run it now your way, feel free to do so. Just tell me where to send my $25 pledge after my single, solitary grown-ass-man pick of January 21st fails to win. I won't be a spineless chicken and start throwing out extra picks to cover my losses. Ruin it as you see fit. I'm not letting this turn into a Blissy/Kato slugfest. You're wrong, but I forfeit.

Greg

This post has been edited by thekohser: Tue 15th January 2008, 3:33am

[Yehudi]

Kelly Martin will probably leak it a few days in advance.

What! She hasn't leaked it yet!!

[KStreetSlave]

What, you've never made super bowl picks?

Don't trifle with me. I run an intellectually formidable NFL pool every year.

If a Super Bowl pool is announced after Week 17, and people make picks for a winning team for $5 each, it does not stand to reason that the pool becomes a better pool if some lard-ass ponies up $60 and puts a bet on every single playoff team to win the Super Bowl. I can't believe you're even using that as a valid analogy.

I guess I'm the only one who sees that these 11th-hour, multiple pickelly-dickelly-doos as being absolutely corrosive to the original intent and spirit of this pool. If you want to run it now your way, feel free to do so. Just tell me where to send my $25 pledge after my single, solitary grown-ass-man pick of January 21st fails to win. I won't be a spineless chicken and start throwing out extra picks to cover my losses. Ruin it as you see fit. I'm not letting this turn into a Blissy/Kato slugfest. You're wrong, but I forfeit.

Greg

Cover what losses? Isn't all this money going to charity anyway?

[KStreetSlave]

Even the weatherman updates his own forecast at the last minute.

He doesn't get a massive financial bonus if he changes his sunny forecast at the moment he hears thunder over the horizon. Come on, Moulton.

I know we're just having fun here, but some of you guys seem to have no common sense about how a reputable prediction market is run.

Greg

Neither do we ( get a massive financial bonus). Charities do.

The way super bowl picks are made where I'm from, is that X number of weeks before the game, you can pay 5 dollars per pick, as many picks as you want, but you have to pick the both teams, and the score. You can make as many picks as you want, but the more picks you make, the more it costs you so you win less money, and stand to lose much more if you get bad luck. The winner is determined first by seeing how many people picked the right teams (if only one, they win). If more than one person picked the right teams, it moves to winner: if only one person picked the winner, they win. If more than one person picked the winner, it goes to score: closest score wins.

Pretty much every pool I know operates the same way. March Madness pools? You can submit as many brackets as you want, but you pay for each one.

[thekohser]

X number of weeks before the game

They seem to have gotten the point, and yet, they're still completely missing it.

Greg

[thekohser]

I presented this concept on December 26, 2007. The subtitle of the thread was asking if we might see the audit completed before the end of 2007 or not. A good number of people picked up on the thread and made picks. The picking completely stopped between January 2nd and January 13th. No picks for eleven days.

I assumed that the picks were complete, and so I began to tally them in order.

A few of you came along and decided that this pool should be run in some newfangled way, where picks can just keep rolling in, whenever they damn well please.

Therefore, I am changing my $25 pick for January 21st. I am taking away $20 from that pick, and then placing $5 on each of:

January 18 17:00 UTC
January 20 14:30 UTC
February 1 19:00 UTC
February 6 17:30 UTC

I am also making 3 more picks for an additional $15, but these picks I will be mailing to myself in a sealed envelope which will be postmarked tomorrow. I will not be revealing these picks to anyone, unless one of them becomes the closest pick to the actual Audit publication date and time, at which point I will post a videotape of myself on YouTube, opening the sealed envelope and proving my pick was the winner. I will be deducting 41 cents (for postage) from the $15 for the prize pool, so that portion will constitute $14.59. Plus my original $5, which was bumped up to $25, but then parceled out to five unique picks.

I nominate Moulton and KStreetSlave to update the tally of everyone's picks and stated charities, along with total dollar amounts.

Thank you. This will be a lot more fun. You guys were right!

[thekohser]

Since when is it permissible in betting to withdraw a wager?

Nothing was withdrawn. My obligation, as for everyone else, was $5. I personally upped that to $25. Now I am merely reallocating the surplus dollars.

</snark mode>

[tarantino]

The audit is now apparently finished, as this update by Mona Venkateswaran to the audit committee wiki shows. I've yet to see any other mention. Maybe they're all getting their stories straight.

[GlassBeadGame]

The audit is now apparently finished, as this update by Mona Venkateswaran to the audit committee wiki shows. I've yet to see any other mention. Maybe they're all getting their stories straight.

You have to be logged in (with something other than a regular WP account) to view the link.

[guy]

Nor can you create an account by yourself.

[Amarkov]

Well, this produces a problem we didn't forsee. Do we assume the audit is done now, do we wait until it's publicly viewable, or what?