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Alex
post Tue 25th November 2008, 12:29am
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OK, I thought I'd create a new thread, to discuss all the nominations in one convenient place, now that the final lot are in.

The list is as follows:

AnthonyQBachler
BillMasen
Carcharoth
Casliber
Charles Matthews
Cool Hand Luke
Coren
Dream Focus
Fish and karate
George The Dragon
Gwen Gale
Hemlock Martinis
Hersfold
Jayvdb
Jdforrester
Jehochman
Justice America
Kmweber
Lankiveil
Lifebaka
Privatemusings
Risker
Rlevse
RMHED
Roger Davies
Sam Korn
Secret
Shell Kinney
SirFozzie
The Fat Man Who Never Came Back
Trojanpony
Vassyana
White Cat
WilyD
Wizardman
WJBscribe

I've already chosen who I will be voting for.
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Shalom
post Tue 25th November 2008, 1:11am
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It might be useful to list the folks who realistically have no shot.

"Never heard of him:"

AnthonyQBachler
BillMasen
Dream Focus (note the meager Wikipedia-space contribs: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?limit=...&year=&month=-1 )
Justice America
Trojanpony

Joke nominations:
George the Dragon
Kmweber
The Fat Man Who Never Came Back

Too much history:
Privatemusings (Arbcom case)
RMHED (failed RFAs)
White Cat (Arbcom case)
Secret (long inactivity this year; unlikely to remain active for a full ArbCom term)

Failed in last year's elections:
Hemlock Martinis (54 support, 78 oppose: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arb...emlock_Martinis )
Shell Kinney (91 support, 73 oppose http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arb...te/Shell_Kinney )

Currently on the committee:
Charles Matthews
Jdforrester

That leaves 20 remaining candidates who have at least an outside shot of winning. I think Hemlock and Shell will do better than some of these, but they won't finish in the top seven. All 20 of the names below are administrators, as best I can recall. It should be noted that no non-admin has won election to the Committee, and it is not likely to happen in the future unless the non-admin is especially respected for other reasons and chooses not to run for RFA. With 7 spots for 20 bona fide candidates, I'll give each of these about a 1 in 3 chance of making it. I may make a more specific prediction later.

QUOTE

Carcharoth
Casliber
Cool Hand Luke
Coren
Fish and karate
Gwen Gale
Hersfold
Jayvdb
Jehochman
Lankiveil
Lifebaka
Risker
Rlevse
Roger Davies
Sam Korn
SirFozzie
Vassyana
WilyD
Wizardman
WJBscribe

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Alex
post Tue 25th November 2008, 1:16am
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QUOTE(Shalom @ Tue 25th November 2008, 1:11am) *


That leaves 20 remaining candidates who have at least an outside shot of winning. I think Hemlock and Shell will do better than some of these, but they won't finish in the top seven. All 20 of the names below are administrators, as best I can recall. It should be noted that no non-admin has won election to the Committee, and it is not likely to happen in the future unless the non-admin is especially respected for other reasons and chooses not to run for RFA. With 7 spots for 20 bona fide candidates, I'll give each of these about a 1 in 3 chance of making it. I may make a more specific prediction later.

QUOTE

Carcharoth
Casliber
Cool Hand Luke
Coren
Fish and karate
Gwen Gale
Hersfold
Jayvdb
Jehochman
Lankiveil
Lifebaka
Risker
Rlevse
Roger Davies
Sam Korn
SirFozzie
Vassyana
WilyD
Wizardman
WJBscribe



Jayvdb is a former ArbCom clerk, and has oversight; Coren and Rlevse are current ones. Rlevse is also a bureaucrat and checkuser. Sam Korn is a former arb, with all the privs that go with it; WJBscribe is MedCom "chair", and a bureaucrat.
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Shalom
post Tue 25th November 2008, 1:26am
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I'll provisionally knock out the kids (users who are definitely or probably less than 24 years old) and some of the newer admins who might not rate high enough on the experience metric. That takes care of Gwen Gale, Hersfold, Lifebaka, WilyD and Wizardman (who also failed last year for inexperience, and I should have listed him earlier). Regarding Wizardman, see his failed RFB which got about 3/4 (75%) support: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Req...tship/Wizardman

That leaves the following fifteen names. I project that the seven top names, and at least nine of the top ten, will be on this list.

QUOTE

Carcharoth
Casliber
Cool Hand Luke
Coren
Fish and karate
Jayvdb
Jehochman
Lankiveil
Risker
Rlevse
Roger Davies
Sam Korn
SirFozzie
Vassyana
WJBscribe


QUOTE(Alex @ Mon 24th November 2008, 8:16pm) *

Jayvdb is a former ArbCom clerk, and has oversight; Coren and Rlevse are current ones. Rlevse is also a bureaucrat and checkuser. Sam Korn is a former arb, with all the privs that go with it; WJBscribe is MedCom "chair", and a bureaucrat.

Yes, I'm aware of that. I'm almost certain WJBscribe and Rlevse will make it, but I don't want to play the game of assigning two seats to them and guessing who will get the other five. I'm just trying to see who's got a chance.

This post has been edited by Shalom: Tue 25th November 2008, 1:24am
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privatemusings
post Tue 25th November 2008, 1:38am
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Here are the absolutely definite, 100% guaranteed, head down to your bookie and make a ton of cash, results for this year's election;

WJBscribe
Rlevse
Sam Korn
Carcharoth
Vassyana
Casliber
and 50 / 50 between Risker and Jayvdb for 7th or 8th....

The results are helpfully in the finishing order too - if anyone will pay more than 12 to 1 on this being accurate, I'll paypal them $10 by return :-)

watch the ex-arb.s closely though (I guess I mean Charles Matthews and Jdforrester), because if they scrape 50% (and I think Charles has a good shot) expect to see them on the committee at some point :-)

That's the skinny from me :-)
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Obesity
post Tue 25th November 2008, 1:58am
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QUOTE(Shalom @ Mon 24th November 2008, 8:11pm) *

It might be useful to list the folks who realistically have no shot.
Joke nominations:
The Fat Man Who Never Came Back

What in his Candidate statement makes you think the Fat Man is kidding? He is surprisingly (though inexplicably) popular among a diverse assortment of established editors/administrators. You might begin to take him slightly more seriously once you see who's voting for him.

QUOTE(privatemusings @ Mon 24th November 2008, 8:38pm) *

That's the skinny from me :-)

That was unnecessary.

This post has been edited by Obesity: Tue 25th November 2008, 2:05am
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Casliber
post Tue 25th November 2008, 2:10am
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PM, if you've just put the kiss of death on my nomination, you can shout me a few beers at the next Sydney meetup biggrin.gif
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everyking
post Tue 25th November 2008, 2:22am
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QUOTE(privatemusings @ Tue 25th November 2008, 2:38am) *

Here are the absolutely definite, 100% guaranteed, head down to your bookie and make a ton of cash, results for this year's election;

WJBscribe
Rlevse
Sam Korn
Carcharoth
Vassyana
Casliber
and 50 / 50 between Risker and Jayvdb for 7th or 8th....

The results are helpfully in the finishing order too - if anyone will pay more than 12 to 1 on this being accurate, I'll paypal them $10 by return :-)

watch the ex-arb.s closely though (I guess I mean Charles Matthews and Jdforrester), because if they scrape 50% (and I think Charles has a good shot) expect to see them on the committee at some point :-)

That's the skinny from me :-)


It's interesting that you're so certain about that list, but I agree that it seems entirely plausible. It would be a moderately positive outcome, although I think having Sam Korn on the ArbCom again would be terrible. I have never even heard of Vassyana before, and I know next to nothing about Casliber, so I'm hoping someone will give me a brief summary of what they're about (maybe Casliber can write a summary for himself).

This post has been edited by everyking: Tue 25th November 2008, 2:23am
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Lar
post Tue 25th November 2008, 2:22am
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QUOTE(privatemusings @ Mon 24th November 2008, 8:38pm) *

Here are the absolutely definite, 100% guaranteed, head down to your bookie and make a ton of cash, results for this year's election;

WJBscribe
Rlevse
Sam Korn
Carcharoth
Vassyana
Casliber
and 50 / 50 between Risker and Jayvdb for 7th or 8th....

The results are helpfully in the finishing order too - if anyone will pay more than 12 to 1 on this being accurate, I'll paypal them $10 by return :-)

watch the ex-arb.s closely though (I guess I mean Charles Matthews and Jdforrester), because if they scrape 50% (and I think Charles has a good shot) expect to see them on the committee at some point :-)

That's the skinny from me :-)

I've just sent PM a PM with my PayPal addy, I'll cover that bet. No way is that the list and especially no way is that the order... Easiest 10 bucks I ever made.
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D.A.F.
post Tue 25th November 2008, 2:26am
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That’s interesting that Jayvdb is running. Few facts about this individual.

This individual is one of the responsible of the second Armenian-Azerbaijan arbitration case, when he helped kill an undergoing mediation over an article by coming in support of a disrupter few days after my ban, after the mediator said the obvious, which was that the suggested change was inappropriate. This killing caused a revert war which lasted months.

This user was also involved in the harassment of a user, who actually left Wikipedia when he came and voted minutes after the harasser to have his article redirected. 1 (not to include his unjustifiable reverts of that users edits)

He also proxied for the harasser in commons and requested checkusers to have one of the harasser foe banned from English Wikipedia.

I’m not going to provide the various other diffs, of his reverts (without justification) of articles related to the Armenia-Azerbaijan case.

He also influenced the course of the Ehud Lesar arbitration case (related to Armenia-Azerbaijan), to have an obvious sockpuppet of a banned user reinstated.

But I guess it won’t be the first time involved parties to arbitration cases will run as arbitrators if that happens.

This post has been edited by Xidaf: Tue 25th November 2008, 2:36am
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Obesity
post Tue 25th November 2008, 2:31am
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QUOTE(Lar @ Mon 24th November 2008, 9:22pm) *

I've just sent PM a PM with my PayPal addy, I'll cover that bet. No way is that the list and especially no way is that the order... Easiest 10 bucks I ever made.


If you need someone to provide escrow services, look no further--I heard this PM is a very slippery fellow.

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Cla68
post Tue 25th November 2008, 2:36am
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Not that it really matters, but I'll probably be giving a support vote to more than seven people, because there are a lot of people on that overall list that I respect.

This post has been edited by Cla68: Tue 25th November 2008, 2:37am
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privatemusings
post Tue 25th November 2008, 3:30am
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QUOTE(Lar @ Tue 25th November 2008, 2:22am) *

I've just sent PM a PM with my PayPal addy, I'll cover that bet. No way is that the list and especially no way is that the order... Easiest 10 bucks I ever made.


it's winging it's way to you now Lar :-) - and I'll even accept the 12 to 1 offered, despite asking for more (I knew I shouldda held out for at least 20...... dammit!)

@everyking (and just generally) - I'd hope it was at least fairly clear that I'm not really at all confident that this is how things will work out (and would likely offer 15 to 1 if anyone wants to paypal me any money! Gotta love a good hedge!)....

My ordering is a combination of what I expect, and what I would like, to be honest - and we'll see how it goes.....

(ps, have folk noticed the latest trend in arb election subpages - they're springing up all over the place! - I'm not sure if Lar's canvassing on my behalf is heartfelt, or if he's trying to win the bet by getting me elected? We'll see!) - Vote Privatemusings!

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Milton Roe
post Tue 25th November 2008, 3:41am
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QUOTE(Miton's guesses)

Coren
WJBscribe
Rlevse
Jayvdb
Jehochman
Sam Korn


That's the safe squad; guaranteed no scary change. And if you add Charles Matthews you're done.


tongue.gif Laugh now, buckos.

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Lar
post Tue 25th November 2008, 3:44am
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QUOTE(privatemusings @ Mon 24th November 2008, 10:30pm) *

QUOTE(Lar @ Tue 25th November 2008, 2:22am) *

I've just sent PM a PM with my PayPal addy, I'll cover that bet. No way is that the list and especially no way is that the order... Easiest 10 bucks I ever made.


it's winging it's way to you now Lar :-) - and I'll even accept the 12 to 1 offered, despite asking for more (I knew I shouldda held out for at least 20...... dammit!)

@everyking (and just generally) - I'd hope it was at least fairly clear that I'm not really at all confident that this is how things will work out (and would likely offer 15 to 1 if anyone wants to paypal me any money! Gotta love a good hedge!)....

My ordering is a combination of what I expect, and what I would like, to be honest - and we'll see how it goes.....

(ps, have folk noticed the latest trend in arb election subpages - they're springing up all over the place! - I'm not sure if Lar's canvassing on my behalf is heartfelt, or if he's trying to win the bet by getting me elected? We'll see!) - Vote Privatemusings!

I got it, thanks. So much for thinking you were skint. Or likely to stiff me. smile.gif (well, actually I got a PROMISE from PayPal since you apparently don't have 10 USD in that account yet... so who knows)

Heck, I'm so sure I won't be sending any of it back, I'll give you 14:1 instead of the offered 12:1 The ordering sealed the deal, no WAY can you predict it that accurately.

As for canvassing on your behalf? You're up to your usual misinterpretation of the words of others, I'd wager.

Er, say.

I already tossed an oppose your way, after all! But I'm glad to see the "this is my opinion, so there" thing is catching on, we're now up to 5.
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privatemusings
post Tue 25th November 2008, 4:18am
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that credit card is sure to work! It was freshly stolen only this morning :-) (actually the bastards have already taken my money, no doubt they're busy lending it to fictional people to buy fictional houses... I just hope the US dollar is still worth something by the time it gets there.......)

my 'usual misinterpretation' is a kinda mean way of describing tongue in cheek commentary - but I take it your comments about me on your subpage weren't an attempt to appease the fat man by working on your satire chops.... my bad....I accept full personal responsibility for that error. :-)

On the other hand, there's just a possibility that some folk read this more than some wiki pages, so you needn't be coy about your support for me - I don't think it'll harm your chances of gaining adminship somewhere down the line, and everyone loves an underdog, right?

I agree with you about the opinion subpages thing, mind - it's good to see folk sharing their thoughts, hopefully more will trundle along....
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privatemusings
post Tue 25th November 2008, 5:14am
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a propos nothing in particular, the odds on my gaining a seat on the committe just shortened considerably with the publication of my 5 big ideas - if folk do take a look, they'll see that credit is due to many folk around here (both WR and wiki types) for most of them - and I really hope they get some attention.

It's with that hope in mind I'm running to be honest, so we'll see if they get any attention at all.....
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Herschelkrustofsky
post Tue 25th November 2008, 7:40am
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QUOTE(Alex @ Mon 24th November 2008, 4:29pm) *

The list is as follows:

AnthonyQBachler
BillMasen
Carcharoth
Casliber
Charles Matthews
Cool Hand Luke
Coren
Dream Focus
Fish and karate
George The Dragon
Gwen Gale
Hemlock Martinis
Hersfold
Jayvdb
Jdforrester
Jehochman
Justice America
Kmweber
Lankiveil
Lifebaka
Privatemusings
Risker
Rlevse
RMHED
Roger Davies
Sam Korn
Secret
Shell Kinney
SirFozzie
The Fat Man Who Never Came Back
Trojanpony
Vassyana
White Cat
WilyD
Wizardman
WJBscribe


Let's compile a sub-list of candidates who are members of the Review. Their membership gives their candidacies far greater credibility to my mind.

I'll need some help here; SirFozzie is here under his WP moniker. Fish and Karate is here as Neil; is the Fat Man he whom we know as Obesity?
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maggot3
post Tue 25th November 2008, 7:46am
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Yep, The Fat Man ... = Obesity. Also Cool Hand Luke = One (see his question page). George The Dragon = The Wales Hunter. Kmweber = Kurt M Weber. Privatemusings, Casilber, Jehochman and Wizardman are all here under the same name.
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Viridae
post Tue 25th November 2008, 8:01am
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Damn I forgot to put my nom in. Totally too busy IRL.
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