QUOTE(mbz1 @ Sun 18th March 2012, 12:07am)
IMO sooner or later most work to be done on wikipedia will be maintenance. I believe maintenance is boring. I wonder, if one day there will be more vandals than admins who'd be willing to spend time blocking them, and users who'd be willing to spend time reverting vandalism.
Well, there are those of us who believe, quite strongly and with significant amounts of anecdotal evidence as well as some statistical evidence, that most work to be done on Wikipedia is
already maintenance and has been for at least two years.
As for the question of whether or not "vandals" outnumber admins, that depends on how you count - clearly there are vast numbers of "vandals" out there, far, far more than the number of admins, but the "vandals" only show up intermittently whereas the admins are there all the time. So realistically, you'd have to count both groups based on something like activity-per-day, or even activity-per-hour. Even then I'd say the number of "vandals" is probably greater, but with bots, "helper" programs like Twinkle and Huggle, and the "quick revert" links implemented a few years ago, it's far easier to fight one than to be one.
The real issue posed here, seems to me, is whether or not burnout incidents like this one with User:CharlieEchoTango are happening more or less often, and is there anything about more recent burnout cases that's different from cases that were common in the past. I'm forced to admit I haven't been observing this stuff as closely as I used to, but the general impression I get is that there
is a difference, and it has to do with the effect of increasing amounts of
manufactured drama on the people who are asked to "do something about it" when it happens.
"Drama" (as defined by the internet) is simply an inevitable byproduct of the Maintenance Phase - as opportunities for creativity are slowly eliminated, and "productivity" is redefined into something that's boring and mundane, people look for other things to interest them, and when they can't find them, they
artificially engineer them. And nothing is more interesting than watching people fight, explode, implode, or self-destruct.
Ultimately, if they don't get this worked out somehow, the Maintenance Phase could give way to what I call the "Implosive Attrition Period," which would be the opposite of the "Explosive Growth Period" we saw in late 2005. And even if they
do get it worked out, they're only going to slow it down - i.e., they're probably going to see a "Slow Attrition Phase" instead... though that could last for several years.