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 The WMF Audit, presented before 2008 or not? |
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| thekohser |
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Let's get a pool going -- when will the WMF audited financial statement for fiscal year ending June 30, 2007, actually be posted to the public by the WMF? Everyone who makes a pick is honor-bound to wager a $5 sum. The person who comes closest (over or under) to the actual date and time of the first public release will win all wagers. The winner will then name a registered and recognized non-profit charity of their choice, and all participants will be honor-bound to apply their $5 as a donation to that charity, in the name of "Mimbo Jimbo's Irresponsible Wikimedia Foundation Audit Contest". That should raise some eyebrows at the recipient non-profit, don't you think? " Hey, Lucille, what are all these $5 PayPal donations from this 'Mimbo Jimbo' group about?" My prediction (and my $5 pledge) are riding on: January 21, 2008; 17:11 UTC (Greenwich mean time) Cumulative pledges = $5. ( each subsequent pool participant should update this total) Good luck and good wagering! Greg P.S. The auditing firm of Gregory, Sharer & Stuart boasts a motto of: Right Answers. Right Now. I guess they've failed on at least one of those brand promises already. This post has been edited by thekohser: |
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| GlassBeadGame |
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QUOTE(thekohser @ Wed 26th December 2007, 11:04am)  Let's get a pool going -- when will the WMF audited financial statement for fiscal year ending June 30, 2007, actually be posted to the public by the WMF? Everyone who makes a pick is honor-bound to wager a $5 sum. The person who comes closest (over or under) to the actual date and time of the first public release will win all wagers. The winner will then name a registered and recognized non-profit charity of their choice, and all participants will be honor-bound to apply their $5 as a donation to that charity, in the name of "Mimbo Jimbo's Irresponsible Wikimedia Foundation Audit Contest". That should raise some eyebrows at the recipient non-profit, don't you think? " Hey, Lucille, what are all these $5 PayPal donations from this 'Mimbo Jimbo' group about?" My prediction (and my $5 pledge) are riding on: January 21, 2008; 17:11 UTC (Greenwich mean time) Cumulative pledges = $5. ( each subsequent pool participant should update this total) Good luck and good wagering! Greg P.S. The auditing firm of Gregory, Sharer & Stuart boasts a motto of: Right Answers. Right Now. I guess they've failed on at least one of those brand promises already. Some audits are more problematic than others. February 9, 2008, 11:00 GMT +0. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Time to really do something for that African kid. |
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| KamrynMatika |
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Haha, good one. Hmm. March 11, 2008 at 11:00AM GMT +0. Oxfam. Cumulative pledges = $15 (IMG: smilys0b23ax56/default/biggrin.gif) Is it normal for audits to take this long to be published? This post has been edited by KamrynMatika: |
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| GlassBeadGame |
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QUOTE(KamrynMatika @ Wed 26th December 2007, 12:13pm) Haha, good one. Hmm. March 11, 2008 at 11:00AM GMT +0. Oxfam. Cumulative pledges = $15 (IMG: smilys0b23ax56/default/biggrin.gif) Is it normal for audits to take this long to be published? About as common as the COO gut shooting someone, committing credit card/check fraud and having a enough DUIs to be arrested as a felon, I suppose. Oxfam is a good choice, too. |
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| thekohser |
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QUOTE(GlassBeadGame @ Wed 26th December 2007, 1:21pm) QUOTE(gomi @ Wed 26th December 2007, 1:14pm) $50 on Jan 25, 5pm EST - donations to benefit ACLU Foundation. Total now = $65 I mis-read and thought all pledges where $5.00 so didn't explicitly state an amount, making mine not show in total. I re-made the pledge $10.00 so the total is now $75.00. I thought all the donations would be $5, too. And I anticipated that they would all be directed to one charity -- to be chosen by our contest winner. That way, one organization will suddenly see a bunch of $5 donations under the rubric of "Mimbo Jimbo" and at least raise some eyebrows. Of course, there's nothing wrong with pledging more than a sawbuck, and you're at liberty to send them wherever you wanted them to go, being that this is just an "honor-bound" contest. But, I really think we'll have the most impact if we deluge one charity with our "Mimbo Jimbo-tagged" contributions. (And it might as well be a high-profile one that might actually look into what's "wrong" with Wikipedia, thus making my choice of a local children's camp a poor one. Now I'm leaning more toward Public Information Research or some such non-profit that already has a bent against Wikipedia and might even run a press release about this contest result.) Greg |
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| thekohser |
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Okay, I would say that the betting is closed. There is a hint that we'll see the audit before the end of January. QUOTE AUDIT
The auditors' field work is complete, and I believe Oleta has now
responded to all their outstanding questions and requests. This means
the auditors will now begin to compile their report. Ordinarily this
would take about two weeks, but in this case it may take slightly
longer: 1., they still may come up with additional questions as they put
it together, and 2., because we didn't expect the audit to take so long,
they may have unavoidable commitments they need to juggle along with us
- so, we may not have their full attention. Regardless, the audit report
will be completed pretty soon - they say, before the end of the month. We have the following contestants and pledge amounts: Jan 21 thekohser $25 Jan 25 Gomi $50 Jan 31 the fieryangel $5 Feb 09 GlassBeadGame $10 Feb 29 dogbiscuit £5 Mar 11 KamrynMatika $5 Apr 08 Badlydrawnjeff $5 Jun 29 Alkivar $10 So, that's a total of about $120. My clock is ticking best right now, but Gomi and TFA look to be the better bets, if one is to believe Sue. P.S. We need a nickname for Sue Gardner, similar to FloFlo and Mimbo Jimbo. |
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| Jonny Cache |
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τα δε μοι παθήματα μαθήματα γÎγονε
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QUOTE(thekohser @ Sun 13th January 2008, 10:41pm)
We need a nickname for Sue Gardner, similar to FloFlo and Mimbo Jimbo.
« The Inconstant Gardner» or « Tigs», for short. Jonny (IMG: smilys0b23ax56/default/cool.gif) |
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| KStreetSlave |
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QUOTE(thekohser @ Mon 14th January 2008, 6:33am) QUOTE(KStreetSlave @ Mon 14th January 2008, 1:22am) Jan. 29. $20. http://www.childsplaycharity.org/ (since Wikipedia is an MMORPG anyway). Also, it'd be nice if we could make multiple picks. I'd like to make a pick in February too, with a second bet. KStreet, have you no sense of fairness? What, you've never made super bowl picks? You get one pick for every say, 5 dollars you throw in the pot. It's fair because the more picks you make, the more money you have in the pot, which dilutes your earnings, and also increases the attractiveness of a cheap pick by others in case they win on a long shot, because they'll win big. QUOTE(Moulton @ Mon 14th January 2008, 12:20pm)
Yes, waiting until the last minute (when more information is available) generally yields a more accurate prediction. Then again, as long as there is no limit to the number of times a person can enter, those who entered early guesses (which are clearly losing entries) can still re-enter and stake out a later date. To maintain fairness, it should be allowable for more than one entrant to pick the same date (in which case the winnings are split).
A split winning goes to both charities right? |
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| gomi |
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QUOTE(Samuel Culper Sr. @ Mon 14th January 2008, 7:06am) Although it might be more nteresting on which day of the week they release the information. People are more likely to release a story that reflects badly on them on a Friday afternoon or Saturday ... Hence my selection of a Friday afternoon, 5pm EST (IMG: smilys0b23ax56/default/smile.gif) QUOTE(Moulton @ Mon 14th January 2008, 9:20am)
Yes, waiting until the last minute (when more information is available) generally yields a more accurate prediction.
Except, of course, that no information is forthcoming. In fairness, I would suggest that the lottery be deemed closed prior to any substantive information on the subject from the WMF or its minions. As regards multiple "tickets", I think that is fine, but you should also allow people to change their vote (provided its date has not passed) before closing. |
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| thekohser |
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QUOTE(KStreetSlave @ Mon 14th January 2008, 2:34pm)
What, you've never made super bowl picks?
Don't trifle with me. I run an intellectually formidable NFL pool every year. If a Super Bowl pool is announced after Week 17, and people make picks for a winning team for $5 each, it does not stand to reason that the pool becomes a better pool if some lard-ass ponies up $60 and puts a bet on every single playoff team to win the Super Bowl. I can't believe you're even using that as a valid analogy. I guess I'm the only one who sees these 11th-hour, multiple pickelly-dickelly-doos as being absolutely corrosive to the original intent and spirit of this pool. If you want to run it now your way, feel free to do so. Just tell me where to send my $25 pledge after my single, solitary grown-ass-man pick of January 21st fails to win. I won't be a spineless chicken and start throwing out extra picks to cover my losses. Ruin it as you see fit. I'm not letting this turn into a Blissy/Kato slugfest. You're wrong, but I forfeit. Greg This post has been edited by thekohser: |
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| KStreetSlave |
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QUOTE(thekohser @ Mon 14th January 2008, 4:23pm) QUOTE(KStreetSlave @ Mon 14th January 2008, 2:34pm)
What, you've never made super bowl picks?
Don't trifle with me. I run an intellectually formidable NFL pool every year. If a Super Bowl pool is announced after Week 17, and people make picks for a winning team for $5 each, it does not stand to reason that the pool becomes a better pool if some lard-ass ponies up $60 and puts a bet on every single playoff team to win the Super Bowl. I can't believe you're even using that as a valid analogy. I guess I'm the only one who sees that these 11th-hour, multiple pickelly-dickelly-doos as being absolutely corrosive to the original intent and spirit of this pool. If you want to run it now your way, feel free to do so. Just tell me where to send my $25 pledge after my single, solitary grown-ass-man pick of January 21st fails to win. I won't be a spineless chicken and start throwing out extra picks to cover my losses. Ruin it as you see fit. I'm not letting this turn into a Blissy/Kato slugfest. You're wrong, but I forfeit. Greg Cover what losses? Isn't all this money going to charity anyway? |
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| KStreetSlave |
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QUOTE(thekohser @ Tue 15th January 2008, 9:10am) QUOTE(Moulton @ Tue 15th January 2008, 7:46am)
Even the weatherman updates his own forecast at the last minute.
He doesn't get a massive financial bonus if he changes his sunny forecast at the moment he hears thunder over the horizon. Come on, Moulton. I know we're just having fun here, but some of you guys seem to have no common sense about how a reputable prediction market is run. Greg Neither do we ( get a massive financial bonus). Charities do. The way super bowl picks are made where I'm from, is that X number of weeks before the game, you can pay 5 dollars per pick, as many picks as you want, but you have to pick the both teams, and the score. You can make as many picks as you want, but the more picks you make, the more it costs you so you win less money, and stand to lose much more if you get bad luck. The winner is determined first by seeing how many people picked the right teams (if only one, they win). If more than one person picked the right teams, it moves to winner: if only one person picked the winner, they win. If more than one person picked the winner, it goes to score: closest score wins. Pretty much every pool I know operates the same way. March Madness pools? You can submit as many brackets as you want, but you pay for each one. |
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| thekohser |
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I presented this concept on December 26, 2007. The subtitle of the thread was asking if we might see the audit completed before the end of 2007 or not. A good number of people picked up on the thread and made picks. The picking completely stopped between January 2nd and January 13th. No picks for eleven days.
I assumed that the picks were complete, and so I began to tally them in order.
A few of you came along and decided that this pool should be run in some newfangled way, where picks can just keep rolling in, whenever they damn well please.
Therefore, I am changing my $25 pick for January 21st. I am taking away $20 from that pick, and then placing $5 on each of:
January 18 17:00 UTC
January 20 14:30 UTC
February 1 19:00 UTC
February 6 17:30 UTC
I am also making 3 more picks for an additional $15, but these picks I will be mailing to myself in a sealed envelope which will be postmarked tomorrow. I will not be revealing these picks to anyone, unless one of them becomes the closest pick to the actual Audit publication date and time, at which point I will post a videotape of myself on YouTube, opening the sealed envelope and proving my pick was the winner. I will be deducting 41 cents (for postage) from the $15 for the prize pool, so that portion will constitute $14.59. Plus my original $5, which was bumped up to $25, but then parceled out to five unique picks.
I nominate Moulton and KStreetSlave to update the tally of everyone's picks and stated charities, along with total dollar amounts.
Thank you. This will be a lot more fun. You guys were right!
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