QUOTE(thekohser @ Fri 2nd November 2007, 9:12am)
QUOTE(thekohser @ Tue 30th October 2007, 1:49pm)
They obtained 8,000 donors in the first week of a nine-week campaign. Average donation is $26. So, simply put, 8,000 donors x 9 weeks x $26 = $1.87 million. Nowhere near $4.6 million. It's even well short of the $2.6 million "projected" above. (Note, also, that the campaign has expressed that 100,000 donors is the goal, and the size of their "thermometer" matches that number. If we forecast the first-week tally through nine weeks, they're only going to hit 72,000 donors.)
Furthermore, I'd like to add in the concept of attrition. People tire of fundraising campaigns -- both longitudinally from year to year, and fatigue sets in within the campaign over each subsequent week. The "eager beavers" have already made their donations. This leaves behind the apathetic masses, bored of being asked to donate to something they regard as their "own" free creation. Let's imagine that over week-to-week, we'll see a conservative 5% attrition rate.
A 5% attrition rate will yield a grand total of $1.54 million.
A 10% attrition rate will yield a total of only $1.27 million.
It's Friday morning, which means we're half-way through
Week 2 of the
Jimbo Blinks, You Donate campaign. Remember that they hoodwinked 8,000 donors in Week 1? Remember that I suggested there would be
attrition in subsequent weeks? We're half-way through Week 2, which would mean a steady donation flow should have added another 4,000 donors to the 8,000 from Week 1, or a current straight-line total of 12,000.
Instead, it looks like we haven't even hit 11,000 yet. Is there any possible way this campaign will be at 16,000 donors by Tuesday morning (the end of Week 2)? I'm saying "no way". Might even have to threaten to eat some liverwurst if they make it.
God, I'm lovin' Tuesdays now.
So, they're at about $275,000 currently. That's a far cry from $4.6 million.
GOOD JOB, Wikipedia Review. I dare say that our efforts are actually having a real-world impact on the hearts and minds of people with "closed-source" wallets.
Good morning, class. Today's number is...
15,350. Remember, last week's number was 8,000 donors. If we subtract 8,000 from 15,350, we get 7,350. That means 650 fewer people donated to Wikipedia this week than they did last week. This is what we call
attrition. Therefore, I am putting this two-pound block of liverwurst back in the refrigerator, since I am not obligated to eat it to fulfill my double-dog-dare of last week.
In fact, what we have just witnessed is a
weekly attrition rate of 8.125%. Quite presciently, last week I offered you all projected grand totals based on either a 5% or a 10% weekly attrition rate. We are about in the middle between the two, aren't we? This would suggest a final fundraising total of about
$1.43 million -- sixty-nine percent short of the $4.6 million goal to overpay Sue Gardner and Mike Godwin. However, that's the best-case scenario, if the Wikimedia Foundation can sustain an attrition rate of
only 8%. I am going to predict right here and now that this attrition rate will
increase over the remaining weeks, by as much as 1 or 2 percentage points per week! They're running out of "eager beavers", which leaves only non-donating visitors who are simply annoyed by the banner ad.
Of course, the predicted total depends on the average donation amount remaining near $26. We did have a
nutter donate $10,000 this week, but that has the algebraic effect of boosting the average overall donation amount by about 75 cents. Perhaps the average donation is up to $27 now. Big deal.
I hope that Zscout returns with more Foundation-sourced totals from the IRC chat which I don't frequent. Those values would corroborate my estimates here, but I would say that the fundraiser is now at the $414,000 mark.
My prediction for next Tuesday morning's (9:00 AM Eastern) donor tally is: 22,040 donors, coughing up $584,000. It still sickens me, but clearly, it's a failure on the Foundation's part.
Greg