Tue 25th November 2008, 3:21pm
QUOTE(One @ Tue 25th November 2008, 9:56am)
If it weren't for legal and ethical problems, I would cover as much of PM's 12-to-1 as he'd allow, especially as he seemed to be offering a trifecta to the sixth place (and only two possibilities for the seventh). Such a bet should accurately have a payout in the hundreds.
... or thousands. Which is why I covered it. And in offering to cover it, warned him I'd be lobbying for a different outcome... he sent me the funds anyway. Sucker. Assuming the payment clears (not yet a foregone conclusion), you just don't MAKE easier money than that.
Now, on the other hand, PM thinks his odds improved a lot with his platform planks being revealed... I happen to agree. I think they got better by at least 3 orders of magnitude... all the way to 1:1,000,000,000 or so. One or two of those planks actually aren't cockamamie ideas.
If anyone is foolish enough to offer 1:1,000,000 odds on PM getting elected. I've got a buck I'll put down against a payout of a million , just for the humor value. But I ain't holding my breath. (you'd probably need to get the million to Obesity, my designated escrow agent, just to be unfair, since I didn't send my 150 to him to cover PM, LOL)
(as a note, this is why I am a LP member... not because they win elections, but because their ideas sometimes have some small influence for the better)